Mark My Words January 11, 2010
Posted by Chuck Musciano in Technology.trackback
There’s been a lot of hype this past week coming out of the Consumer Electronic Show, centered around a couple of big technology items: tablet devices and 3D television. To save you all the trouble of figuring out whether to jump on this bandwagon, let me offer my prediction as to the future success of these devices.
Tablet devices: No.
3D television: No.
If you are pressed for time, you can stop reading now. If you have a moment, here’s why:
For both if these devices, the failure is not in the technology, which is admittedly sexy and clever. It is in the ergonomics and usability, both of which matter very little to the nerds at CES but matter dearly to real people that buy these devices.
Consider a tablet device. If all you are looking for is an iPhone on steroids, you may like this thing. But it’s too big to put in your pocket, too small to use as a real computer, and has limited usability for anything that requires real typing. For music, ebooks, and movies, it could be useful, but so is an iPod or iPhone. Web surfing would be lovely, but typing anything at length is pretty much impossible.
If you’d like to prove this to yourself, try this “tablet simulation” trick. Take your flat panel monitor and lay it face up on your desk, just above your keyboard. Type like this for a week. How’s your neck feeling? Now, put your monitor back, and attach your keyboard to its lower edge with duct tape. Any better? Those are your two typing positions for a tablet, so pick the one you prefer.
Tablets were all the rage about six years ago. After the excitement died down, tablets suddenly developed real keyboards attached via a clever multi-way hinge. This hinge had two primary uses: you used it show off your tablet to your friends for the first three days after you bought it, and then the hinge broke two years later, rendering your laptoptablet useless. In short, tablet PCs combined a $800 laptop with a $900 hinge. Oddly, this never proved very popular.
Those who forget history are condemned to repeat it. Thus, expect to see a bevy of tablets which will enjoy brief lives as overweight ebook readers and cumbersome music players, coupled with a short aftermarket of weird add-on keyboards.
What about 3D television? Please. Except for fulfilling the lifelong dream of Ralph Kramden, there is no practical application for 3D television. Who is going to put on special glasses whenever they want to watch television? And forget lying on the couch, or on your side. You’ll be sitting upright directly in front of the set if you expect to get the full effect, including headaches for some viewers.
Honestly, is there any content on television that is just crying out for 3D? Will Real 3D Housewives of Des Moines really be improved with this technology? Should we expect more dimensional ingredients on Iron Chef 3D? Barring a resurgence of 80s-style shoulder pads, I don’t know that Launch My Line 3D will provide the aesthetic bump that really extends the genre.
I find it ironic that, as content migrates to portable devices (like tablets!), we’re going to create proprietary display formats that only work on home-bound devices. Wait. I just realized what we really need.
3D tablets!
Who’s got the number of a VC? This will be huge!
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This reminds of the joke:
- What would it be like if Microsoft owned the TV networks?
- If they did, you’d need to get a new TV every time they created a new show. (insert rim shot here)
But as someone who is somewhat a gadget guy, I am feeling a bit fatigued from the onslaught of plasma, LCD, LED, and now 3D TV technologies. I wonder if that fatigue (along with the economy) will cause folks to skip a generation of this technology. (maybe I’m getting old)
And whatever happened to Smell-o-vision anyway…they jus tjumped right over that life-changing technology. I want my Smell-o-vision so I can really enjoy Iron Chef. ; )
I’d agree with the likelihood that 3D TV isn’t going to take off, at least this year. I’ve watched a couple DVDs with 3D and using special glasses. Can’t say I found it all that great. I do think that 3D TV will eventually find a market as, besides movies, sports could be interesting in 3D. But, again, not soon.
However, I am not convinced a tablet device would be unsuccessful, especially something like the Courier. Now it sounds like the ones announced are not up to the promise of the Courier, so I would certainly hold off on having one. But a stylus with good (written and voice) recognition software would allow me to replace the handwritten notes I take in meetings and conferences. (I find people typing, as silent as it may be, to be annoying, both due to the accumulation of sound when many are doing so and vibration on tables. So I choose to not type on a laptop, most of the time, when in such situations.)
I also don’t like trying to use a laptop on planes, but I find writing, manually, to be no problem. So I’d be willing to go for a tablet device.
I have one exception to your opinion on tablet PCs.
I am a sound engineer for my church. I spec’d out the latest round of system improvements and worked with the contractor on installation. I’ve also trained the other people that engineer sound. (we’re on a 4 week rotation so that no one gets burned out)
Like many churches, mine made the mistake of putting the control booth in the back corner and enclosed it. You really can’t hear for squat in there and have no idea what it sounds like in the house.
We bought a Yamaha LS9-32 console which has servo controller faders and an ethernet port. I use connect it to a wifi router and have a tablet computer on the wifi as well. I run software from yamaha that allows me to control all of the functions of the console from the tablet.
I can go up on the stage during rehearsal and adjust the monitor mixes while I’m standing there listening to them, and I can sit in the house and hear what the audience is hearing as I mix for the house.
I’ve purchased a tablet for the church and one of my own laptops is also a tablet so that I can have a backup in case the churches tablet fails.
The tablet aspect is indispensable since you can move the cursor instantly to any control. A mouse or touchpad would not be so easy to use as the stylus.
I realize that this is a pretty specific application of the tablet technology, but it may not be the only one.
It’s also great for playing online chess
@Steve – Believe it or not, people were actually working on Smell-o-vision a few years ago, with a device containing various “base scents” attached to the set. Your dream may yet come true…
@Scott – Having been a faithful tester of handwriting recognition since the Casio Zoomer launched in 1993, I’ve yet to see that technology work acceptably. Plus, writing is slower and more tiring that typing for most people. Also, capacitive touch devices (like the iPod and iPhone) do not work with a stylus, so it’s finger-based input only.
@Chuck – Niche devices will always have a place, and your use of a tablet sounds perfect for that application. I was thinking of more general adoption. And all those chess players.
If I were working on a manuscript (at least bulk input), I’d rather type, sure. But in the scenario I mentioned, I would be taking notes, not trying to transcribe the vebatim words of the speaker. And is the assumption that all tablets will be capacitive touch? (I know Jobs has been described as hating a stylus, but apparently Apple is not the only company interested in tablets.)
Barring a resurgence of 80s-style shoulder pads, I don’t know that Launch My Line 3D will provide the aesthetic bump that really extends the genre.
- funny stuff
Good timing on this post for me. I just had a covnersation with my wife about how 3D TV is coming back, and how it never worked the first time. We can probably count on its resurgence every 15 years or so, as new generations of geeks blossom and believe “the world is now ready for it”
Just a thought. How about having a “screen” (acting as 3D “glasses”) in front of the TV screen (so everyone can watch in 3D without wearing the special glasses)? Would that work?
@Scott – I understand your need, but then you need two devices, or a dock. Perhaps the very clever pop-out tablet from Lenovo would be a good solution.
@Jeremy – Technology, more than anything else, serves as the recurring perfect example of “Those who forget history are condemned to repeat it.” My current peeve: Cloud Computing = 3270 Terminal.
@Reigneer – Unfortunately, 3D only works by presenting slightly different images to each eye. If it could be done with a screen, it would have been done by now. Attempts to use bichromatic screens have met with limited success.
Seems you still seem to feel I ought to have a laptop, basically, that is, something with a keyboard. But that’s what I’ve tried to say I don’t want/need for what I would use the tablet for. I’d rather have a tablet with a keyboard that you can attach by cable when you want to do so. But I have not seen any of the tablet descriptions suggest that is something anyone is planning. If desktops can do this, why couldn’t a tablet. (Oh, yeah, you’d need a way to prop up the tablet when you use the keyboard, but that hardly seems like a serious problem to overcome.)